The cocoa price in New York recently fell to around USD 2,250/t, after the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) forecast a larger than expected surplus. The first forecast from the ICCO showed a supply surplus of 39,000 t in the 2018/19 crop year that has been underway since October. As such, the surplus would be somewhat larger than expected. Commerzbank Research said the 2017/18 surplus was revised down to just 9,000 t, however. Global cocoa production is set to grow by 3.2 % in 2018/19 on the back of a considerably larger crop in Ivory Coast.
“The growth will probably be somewhat more pronounced than deliveries so far have suggested,” said Commerzbank. “The ICCO envisages a robust mid-crop. By contrast, the crop in Ghana, the number two cocoa producer, looks set to decrease slightly despite shipments so far being well up on the previous year.”
Commerzbank said an expected 2.6 % growth in demand (grinding) is split more or less equally between the producer countries (+53,000 t) and the import countries (+66,000 t). Ivory Coast leads the field in this respect, (+21,000 t), followed closely by Malaysia (+19,000 t). Both countries grind cocoa beans primarily for export. As far as grinding is concerned, consuming countries – such as the US, Germany, the Netherlands and the UK – show slight increases of 5,000 to 7,000 t.