The International Cocoa Organisation (ICCO) has updated its estimates for global cocoa production, grindings and stocks for the cocoa years 2020/21 and 2021/22. The cocoa balance sheet for 2021/22 has been revised several times. The supply side estimate decreased by 67,000 t to 4.823 m t, about 1 % below the previous bulletin’s estimate of 4.890 m t. Yields have declined in most major producing countries due to less favourable weather conditions and diseases, and these declines were responsible for the new estimates.

Grinding was revised upwards by about 10,000 t to 5.081 m t from 5.071 m t in the last bulletin, reflecting an increase in demand for beans, as shown by trade in cocoa products. Despite challenges in the global macroeconomy, cocoa demand remained stable in 2021/22, increasing from an expected 4.98 m t in 2020/21 to 5.08 m t in 2021/22, a 2 % increase over the previous year.

In August, ICCO’s forecasted global deficit, which was previously set at 174,000 t, rose to an estimated 230,000 t. The primary cause of this deficit increase was attributed to Ghana’s steep decline in production, which dropped from a previous forecast of 800,000 t down to 689,000 t.