07/09/2022 | Ingredients

ICCO increases forecast for 2021/2022 global cocoa deficit

In the latest quarterly bulletin of cocoa statistics for August 2022, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) revised its estimates for the 2021/22 cocoa year. Figures for the world production, grindings and stocks of cocoa beans were revised in the recent issue, which reflects the most up-to-date information available to the Secretariat as of August 2022.

Most notably, the forecasted global deficit, previously set at 174,000 t, has now risen to an estimated 230,000 t. The primary cause of this deficit increase is attributed to Ghana’s steep decline in production, which dropped from a previous forecast of 800,000 t down to 689,000 t. Ghana, together with Ivory Coast, accounts for approximately 60 % of the global cocoa supply.

The poor performance of Ghana’s crop was slightly offset by the upward revisions in other cocoa-producing countries. Cameroon: 290,000 t up from 280,000 t, Nigeria: 280,000 t up from 270,000 t, Brazil: 220,000 t up from 210,000 t and Peru: 160,000 t up from 150,000 t. Ivory Coast’s forecasted production remains unchanged at 2.2 m t.

ICCO’s report showed that global grindings in 2021/22 were up by 23,000 t from the previous forecast, currently sitting at 5.07 m t.