How will commodity markets develop in 2025? Puratos' market report provides a concise overview of current developments in key ingredients such as cocoa, sugar, eggs, milk, cereals and vegetable oils. This quarter's focus: volatile cocoa prices, stable cereal markets and regional uncertainties in sugar.
Cocoa remains an uncertain factor: While sales of cocoa powder remain stable, butter and intermediate products are under pressure. Stocks in Europe are falling and the quality of the interim harvest leaves much to be desired. At the same time, demand for real chocolate is weaker than expected a challenge for manufacturers in the confectionery industry.
Sugar is developing differently in different regions: While the global sugar price is under pressure due to weak demand and economic uncertainties, prices in Europe continue to rise including Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom. The area under sugar beet cultivation in the EU is expected to shrink by around 8.5% in the coming season.
Wheat is proving robust. Good harvest prospects and limited selling interest on the part of farmers are supporting prices despite weak import demand from China and India. The milk market remains stable overall, with high prices for butter and milk proteins. Only skimmed milk powder is available at lower prices.
Egg prices remain fragile. After a seasonal decline after Easter, bird flu cases in Poland and the US are once again weighing on the supply situation.
Vegetable oils are also under pressure: While palm oil and palm kernel oil prices are falling due to weak demand, the situation for rapeseed, sunflower and soybean oil is influenced by climatic factors and political decisions relating to biofuels.
"Many raw materials are currently showing inconsistencies price peaks are being offset by sudden declines," explains Kirsten Zabel, Marketing Manager at Puratos Germany. "We are observing increasing planning uncertainty for bakeries, confectioneries and industrial customers and are supporting them with regular analyses and assessments."
Energy prices are currently remaining at a neutral level, with rising gas reserves and subdued demand in Asia. Inflation in Germany stood at 2.1% in May 2025 a slightly higher but still moderate figure.
